There's lots to talk about today so fasten your thinking caps tightly; but first grab a bib because you'll be salivating over the next Phillies Nation event.  This Saturday, before, during and after the Red Sox game the mother of all tailgate parties will be held in the parking lot at 7th and Pattison.  On Smokin' Dave's gigantic trailer of a grill will be a 90 lb. hog, 50 lbs. of brisket, 150 pieces of chicken, and 3 turkeys cooking for your epicurean delight.  You can eat as much as you can handle for just $5.  There will also be the traditional side dishes of corn on the cob and pasta salad but you have to provide your own beer.  So, tickets or no tickets, make sure you show up for the real fun in South Philly Saturday evening.  Now on to less delicious news...

What a difference a week makes! Before last week the Phillies Nation poll showed a majority of you though the Phillies had little to no chance to be in the playoff hunt come September. But as polls closed, the optimist camp surged ahead with 53% of the vote while the nay-sayers could garner only 30%. Yes, the Marlins-Braves-Giants troika was good to the Phillies, but now it's time to get down to business as the Mets bring their NL-best record and 4 game division lead into town. It seems a fitting epilogue to the Billy Wagner saga of this winter that he returns amidst more controversy than he left.  But hopefully he will never make it out of the thunderdome of insults known as the visitor's bullpen. Therefore today I wanted to concentrate on two pitchers that will definitely see the rubber tonight.

This just in:  Chase Utley has just been named NL player of the week.  His credentials pretty much speak for themselves.  Last week he went 14 for 29 with 3 HR, 8 RBIs, a .483 AVG and a .862 SLG.  On the season, he ranks second in the majors with a .581 slugging percentage and among second basemen he is second in both hits (38) and RBIs (24).  It's no wonder the Phils are riding an eight game winning streak since among the other nominees for the award included Rheal Cormier (five games, 2-0, 0.00 ERA), Tom Gordon (0.00 ERA, six strikeouts, four saves), Ryan Howard (.304 average, three homers, nine RBIs) and Aaron Rowand (.333 average, three homers, nine RBIs).  Needless to say it was a perfect week for the Phillies.

How about that game last night - exciting, huh?  It looks like the Phillies motivation is coming not from their manger as hoped, but newcomer Aaron Rowand.  Everyone in Chicago said they would miss his positive attitude in the clubhouse, so it should come as no surprise he's filled the leadership void here in Philly.  He leads both by example and by inspiration - something the Phillies desperately need if they intend to continue this turnaround - a four game winning streak with the last three being come-from-behind victories.

One negative note though from last night's game was another disappointing play in the field by Ryan Howard.  He failed to dig out a ball that hit off the heel of his glove in the fifth inning.  The error was charged to Nunez, but should have been Howard's league leading fifth error of the season.  Even Larry Andersen lobbied vociferously on the radio to get the error charged to Ryan.  But alas, the Phils won so I don't want to complain too much.

Today we have a grab bag of topics to mull over.

Thankfully, the Phillies salvaged the series - and their dignity - against the Pirates yesterday with a 5-1 win behind Gavin Floyd who was "effectively wild enough to be successful".  In the first two games of the weekend, the Phils pitching only surrendered 3 runs per game, but the offensive only managed run totals of 1 and 2.  This series has left me wondering why aren't the Phillies rolling over these below-average teams?  In the last half of April, the Phils faced Washington (8-17), Florida (6-16), Colorado (15-10) and Pittsburgh (7-19).  Amazingly they took the Colorado series, but split with Florida and lost to Pittsburgh and Washington.  Before this supposedly soft part of the schedule hit, everyone was saying here's where the Phils can get back on track if they take or maybe even sweep a few of these series.  Well, we closed the book on April and Phils are no better for it.  It's not quite time to panic, but how for how much longer can we can, "oh, they just have to win the next few series and they'll be ok"?

Back to the question of why aren't the Phillies winning the games they're supposed to?  Well, if I was Chris Wheeler I might say it's because they are allowing more runs then they score.  But I'm not, so I will dig a little deeper with a quick look at the Phillies pitching today - offensive and defensive analysis will come tomorrow.

Below is a chart showing the expected win-loss record for Phillies starters alongside their actual record.  The expected record for the pitcher is based on how often pitchers with the same innings pitched and runs allowed earned a win or loss historically.

 
eW
eL
W
L

Myers
2.2
.9
2
1

Lidle
1.7
1.8
2
3

Lieber
1.3
2.8
0
4

Floyd
1.2
3.0
2
2

Madson
0.9
2.4
2
1

As you can expect, Jon Lieber's numbers are the most contrasting.  Part of this discrepancy can be explained by his bullpen support, which is second worst in the majors.  So in his case, a lot of extra runs are charged to him after he leaves the game (5 out of 5 bequeathed runners have scored) - of which, of course he is still partly to blame.  Myers is about on target with his expectations, Lidle is a bit below and Floyd and Madson are actually surpassing their expected totals.  Really what this means, when you factor in runs allowed, is that Floyd and Madson give up a lot of runs, which is not surprising with their ERAs of 6.57 and 8.05 respectively.  Lieber also gives up a lot of runs but (7.04 ERA) but has pitched more innings than Floyd and Madson.  Taken on its own, these stats for Phillies starters paint a pretty opaque picture of why the Phillies are losing.  On average the expected outcome for starters is just about the same as the actual result.

The bullpen has been similarly decent on average, but with plenty of ups and downs along the way.  There's little argument that Tom Gordon has successfully replaced Billy Wagner thus far as he has converted all of his save opportunities.  Arthur Rhodes in just under 8 innings of work has allowed 5 runs while Ryan Franklin has allowed 6 in 13.3.  Franklin's runs obviously hurt more as his 2 losses will testify.  Fultz and Geary have been used the most this season but according to Baseball Prospectus it's been mostly in mop-up situations.  Julio Santana has himself a 7.71 ERA after just seven innings of work, so he certainly isn't helping matters.  Thus the bullpen - save Tom Gordon - can be described as inconsistent at best.

A rudimentary conclusion we can draw concerning the Phillies pitching is that while it isn't terrible, it's definitely not taking charge and winning games.  In my opinion, the most pressing concern is getting Jon Lieber his first win of the season.  Even thought he's a veteran, he's confidence has to be hurting and with the "throw strikes first, ask questions later" philosophy of his, that is not a good mix.  While the pitching hasn't looked great in April, I can't say it has significantly been the cause of the Phillies losses -- especially before we look at the offensive and fielding tomorrow.  I suspect the since the 8 of the Phillies 14 losses have come by 2 runs or less that offensive might be the issue.  Let's hope not because tonight the Fightins are scheduled for a pitchers duel as Brett Myers locks up against Dontrelle Willis.  Fortunately, JRoll loves playing against his high school sweetheart.  The Phils might have to rely on him because as Paul Hagen pointed out today, (though something we already know) the Phils do not fare well against left-handed pitching.

Phils lost a close one last night behind Gavin Floyd's less than spectacular outing.  He coughed up three quick runs in the first, a homer in the second, and then was tagged for three more in the fourth.   Besides Floyd's inability to record outs, there were a few other let downs on defensive.  Jimmy Rollins uncharacteristically threw a routine ball away in the fourth inning.  In the eighth, Chase Utley committed an error as he dropped a humpback liner up the middle - though it was knuckling in the wind.  Last season the Phillies had the highest fielding percentage in the league but this year they're near the bottom.  Defensive superiority was supposed to be a given with this team - especially the middle infield - but somehow they've managed to digress in the category.

Marcus Hayes wrote today on how despite the excitement over the youthful core of the Phillies, it has so far been the veterans that have provided the spark this season.  Truth be told, I don't think anyone, including Marcus, is giving up on Howard, Utley and company, in fact the future looks bright with them in the lineup.  To complement these two in the coming years, the Phillies have a reinvigorated farm system with much potential.  Let's take a look at how it's doing this year.

Standing-wise the young Phillies are collectively not off to any better a start than the big boys.  The soon to be divorced Red Barons are 6-6, the Reading Phillies are 3-8, the Threshers are 6-5, and the BlueClaws are 1-9.  Individually however, there have been a few bright spots; as Scout.com recently commented, "while the pitching has been almost universally standout from top to bottom, they haven't received much offensive support."

Well, we should all rejoice in the fact that the Phillies did not lose last night.  Tonight they look to avoid their worst start since going 1-8 in 1987 as Cory Lidle takes the mound against Jorge Sosa and the Braves.

In the last spring training meeting between the two clubs, the Phillies tagged the righty for 4 runs off 5 hits including a monstrous 3-run homer by Ryan Howard.  But alas, this is obviously not spring training anymore, if it were, the Phillies would probably be winning at a rate of more than once a week.  Yes, things are looking down for the Fightins' and statistics have been flashed everywhere explaining the poor performance - paltry average with RISP, low run production, opposing pitchers hitting the ball well, just to name a few.  To add insult to underachieving, these stats all converge to give the Phillies the penultimate position in Baseball Prospectus' first power rankings.  All this bad news notwithstanding, I hope everyone retains confidence that the Phillies will turn it around, they are a much better team that what we have seen the past week.

The Phillies web site reported last night that Gavin Floyd will most likely be the Phillies fifth starter.  There have never been any plans to have Floyd move to the bullpen, so his options have either been start for the Phillies or start for the Red Barons.  The announcement yesterday stated that he would stay on the Phillies roster while Brito and Tejeda would be sent down; thus one can only assume Floyd won the final spot.  No official announcement has been made by the Phillies but as the hours to Opening Day count down Manuel is likely to name both his final rotation and Monday's starter by this weekend.   "We're not talking," said Manuel, who made the decision on Tuesday but has chosen to keep it a secret.

Floyd of course came into spring training with little chance to make the roster due to his dreadful performance last season.  But apparently low expectations make it easy to impress.  According to Manuel, "He exceeded my expectations, because he wasn't a guy who would've even been considered for somewhere in the pitching staff."  Gavin is 4-0 in six games this spring with a 2.08 ERA, 15 strikeouts and 7 walks. 

This news of course begs the question: who will be demoted to the bullpen, Ryan Franklin or Ryan Madson?  Madson has had a similarly excellent spring going 2-0 in five games though Franklin has pitched well himself.  The inside track though belongs to Franklin who will likely fulfill Madson's old role as setup man for the setup man (i.e. 7th inning work).  Many have questioned Franklin's ability to seriously improve the Phillies rotation so a bullpen spot might seem a better fit.  As for Floyd, it's always a good idea to keep a hot player playing, so I am glad he is getting another chance.  However his success in spring training will not cancel out his previously dismal stints in the big leagues.  Therefore Manuel and Rich Dubee will have some close observing to do as Floyd will likely be on a short lease.  There's nothing like a little pitching controversy to kick this season off right!

Other roster moves to note:  Ricardo Rodriguez was released, Danny Sandoval was optioned to the minors, and Chris Booker was put on the 15-day DL with right-knee inflammation.  Chris Coste, Tomas Perez, and Chris Roberson are still looking to secure the final spot on the roster; unless, as stated before, the Phils pick up a veteran left-handed bat to come off the bench.

UPDATE:  It's official!  From Phillies.com:  Manuel made official on Thursday what had been speculated for the past 24 hours: Gavin Floyd and Ryan Madson earned the final two spots in the rotation, and Ryan Franklin will work the seventh inning out of the bullpen.  "[Gavin] earned it and can help us," Manuel said. "He's getting a chance. And he can get [beat up] and still get another chance. He's going to hold his own. I think he's going to be pretty good. He's getting a good chance to establish himself in the Major Leagues."

Remember not so long ago when all anyone talked about was who the Phillies could fetch for Bobby Abreu and how Gillick was dying to land a starter?  Well, a Ryan Franklin trade and a Ryan Madson promotion later and so rounds out the Phillies starting rotation.  Yet if Gillick is still looking to make a deal, the Red Sox are offering.  Numerous sources have claimed the Sox are looking to move David Wells, Matt Clement, or Bronson Arroyo.  Plenty of speculation has surrounded these guys all off-season since the Red Sox are carrying seven legitimate starters, but only recently have they begun to actively shop them.  Wells, though he rescinded his early trade demand, seems the most likely to go.  His age, off the field antics (last week calling Bud Selig "a piece of shit"), desire to pitch on the West Coast, and small salary combine to create the perfect storm for his departure.  But perhaps he isn't the Phillies savior. 

Clement has yet to allow a run scored this spring training but is due $18 million over the next two seasons and absolutely tanked towards the end of last year including the playoffs.  Arroyo has always been the most promising.  Two months ago, we mentioned involving him and Jason Michaels in a deal.  Although he would be another righty starter, he should at least be considered by Gillick.  The Sox need help in the bullpen and we all know the Phils have plenty of arms.  How would an Arroyo for some combination of Aaron Fultz, Eude Brito, Rob Tejeda or Gavin Floyd trade sound?  If it's to happen, it will have to be more appealing than the Nationals' Nick Johnson, because as of now he appears to be the frontrunner in the clinching the deal.

While it is unlikely Arroyo - or any current Red Sox - will be starting for the Phils come April, I do hope that Gillick and his team at least make a few calls.  No matter how much Ryan Franklin is thought of as a "Gillick-guy," the management cannot play favorites.  Similarly, just because spring training has started and we have Madson - and now Gio Gonzalez - aiming for the final spot in the rotation, it's never too late to improve the team.

An update on the Harry Kalas scandal comes to us from Rob Brooks, the Phillies' manager of broadcasting:  "Harry is going to be doing six innings on TV and Scott Graham is going to do six on radio. No other decision on our lineup has been finalized."  The Inky article by Marc Narducci made a surprisingly good case favoring Wheels over L.A. for the television job.  He claims although Andersen is funnier and more friendly with Kalas, Wheels is the better analyst.

He has tremendous recall for situations that have occurred in Phillies history. He is always pointing out defensive strategies. Nobody is more up-to-date on the game's current events than Wheeler. It would be hard to find any announcer who comes to a game more prepared than Wheeler.

My impression of Chris Wheeler is certainly not that high.  I've met him on a few occasions, but one encounter stands out in particular.  I was waiting around in the Phillies office after a game one afternoon at the Vet.  The television there was tuned to a Braves game on TBS.  Wheels came in the office and stopped next to me to check the score.  He turned to me, said "Huh, 2-1," and then walked off.  I immediately looked up at the tv and saw that the score was in fact 3-0.  It was one of those moments in life where you begin to helplessly grasp for some explanation for what just happened.  I wasn't sure if the guy was blind, confused or just trying to mess with my head.  So ever since that day, all three characteristics come to mind when I think of Wheels.

With spring training now upon us, it's hard not to get excited about the 2006 season.  But if you'll indulge me for a moment, I have to mention this bizarre article by Paul Hagen in today's Daily News.  It concerns Darren Daulton and his rebirth into the world of metaphysics.  Not as much a philosopher as an unapologetic believer, Dutch now claims he understands the world in the 4th and 5th dimensions, while the rest of us mortals stop at the 3rd:  "I see life in a different perspective than I used to, in a way that's different from how most people see it."  (I wish I was making this up because it only gets crazier, so please read on...)

Even as Philly is blanketed in snow, the anticipation for the 2006 season is certainly heating up.  Today Peter Gammons reported on his recent poll of a few dozen baseball minds asking them three questions leading up to the impending season: which youngsters in their first full season will eventually be "difference makers"; who will have a breakout season; and who will have the biggest comeback.  Not surprisingly among the 30 total answers, not a single Phillies was mentioned. 

In the first category of future difference makers, the Phils do have a few that could by definition fit the category - Ryan Madson, Gavin Floyd, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard - but don't seem to have convinced the establishment that they will become stars.  As for those that could have a breakout year, only Brett Myers comes to mind.  He should be able to build upon his respectable performance of last season, but whether or not he will truly "breakout" will have to been seen.  Seemingly most must think that Utley and Howard already had their breakout seasons.  Howard of course exploded onto the scene last year but still has much room for improvement, while Utley seems more inclined towards gradual improvement rather than an explosion of talent.  Burrell certainly already had (and cashed in on) his breakout season back in 2002.  Finally, the comeback player category really doesn't fit any current Phils.  We all certainly are hoping Randy Wolf will at least return to form and pitch three full months of the season but no one is waiting for him to comeback on the scale of Bonds, Gagne, Thome, or Nomar.

For all those still holding out hope for the Phils landing Benji Molina, I have bad news for you.  Last night, Molina and the Blue Jays agreed to a 1-year deal worth $5 million.  This does mean though that he will again be available next off-season for the Phils to sign (or not) just as Lieberthal's contract expires.

Instead, the Phils landed another backup infielder, Alex S. Gonzalez - details on the agreement should come soon with an official announcement expected later this week.  In this case, the S stands for superfluous.  With Abraham Nunez, Matt Kata, Danny Sandoval and jokester Tomas Perez, the backup infield position is already fairly deep.  Most likely Perez will be the one to go, which may have an effect on clubhouse morale since he's been with the team for the past six season.  I have to say, I'm not exactly sure what Gillick's thinking here.  After signing Nunez, claiming Kata will make major contributions to the team, having Perez on a relatively cheap contract AND talking all off-seaon about the need to improve pitching, he goes and signs another infielder.  All I can say is that Gonzalez will have to fight with Ryan Franklin for the top spot on the "In Gillick We Trust" watchlist.

Finally check out today's article on The Hardball Times which attempts to calculate the value of a player in terms of how much money he generates for his organization.  The primary example used is Jimmy Rollins and the Phillies.  Although the methodology rests heavily on the entire team's performance in evaluating a single player's value (which is a bit too dependant for my tastes), it's certainly worth a read.

A few people have inquired as to the status of Ugueth Urbina and the possibility of him rejoining the team to bolster the bullpen.  I'm afraid to say that things are not looking good for Mr. Urbina let alone his relationship with the Phillies.  Last week a Venezuelan judge denied the reliever's request to be released from prison pending his trial on attempted murder charges.  Urbina has been in jail since December when the court determined that the prosecution's evidence was sufficient to warrant a case.  And the longer he remains in prison the lower his chances are of coming out unscathed, according to a recent article in the Economist:

Venezuela's jails, say prison-reform groups, have long been among the worst. On an average day, at least one prisoner dies violently, the result of overcrowding, the availability of drugs and guns, and a poorly trained and understaffed prison service. “If you don't have a chuzo (a handmade knife), you can't survive in prison,” said Jesús Adirio Quiroz, an inmate.

Unfortunately, it seems that Uggie will be there a while.  There appears little likelihood of settling the case out of court.  Victim Ricardo Osal recently stated, "What we want is justice, for him to pay with jail time. We're not looking for any type of financial arrangement."  So the case is definitely going to trial, but even if Urbina is acquitted he may still have an extended stay in jail prior to the opening arguments.  The right to a speedy trial does not seem to be on the top of the Venezuelan Bill of Rights as no trial date has been set as of yet.

Thus the uncertainty of when Urbina will, if ever, return to the United States and in what mental and physical state does not lend itself to a deal Pat Gillick is likely to become involved in.