Two Man Race For National League MVP?

Huge Tiny Mistake

Likely on purpose, ESPN.com’s front page highlighted the race for MVP, and delcared it a two man race:

• Howard blasts Nos. 50, 51, 52 | Pujols hits 3, too

The juxtaposition does not go unnoticed here. I also see it as a two man race at first glance, with Pujols having the lead in the rate stats(AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS) and Howard having the edge in the counting stats(hits, HR, RBI). Though RBI is fairly team-dependent, it still makes baseball writers’ heart go a-fluttering.

Now, who’s better? Who’s more valuable? Here’s their standards lines:

Pujols: 117 games, 321 avg, 423 OBP, 677 SLG (1.099 OPS), 27 doubles, 42 HR, 114 RBI, 110 runs

Howard: 134 games, 308 avg, 401 OBP, 660 SLG (1.061 OPS), 18 doubles, 52 HR, 133 RBI, 88 runs

So, yeah. Pujols went on the DL in a fluke accident for about tw and a half weeks and that hurts his overall counting stats. Still, they are fairly close enough that it’s still tough to define who has been ‘better’. Pujols certainly had the better start, and then got hurt right in the middle of that, but Howard has been the best hitter in the Majors since the all-star break. How else can this be measured, since they play the same position on defense too?

One way is to go beyond the standard line of statistics and see what stats like VORP and EQA say. Neither of these are easy to add up, and neither are as widely known as the quick and dirty OPS, but what they both do is compare a player to the rest of their position and weigh it accordingly. VORP is ‘value over replacement player’, and basically shows how good a player is compared to an average replacement (average being 0). For example, Braves OF Jeff Francoeur is 0.0, Astro OF Jason Lane is 0.0, as is Phils bench player Joe Thurston. Thing is, a player could have a different VORP if he moved positions. Howard’s VORP would be much higher if he were a SS. We’re getting into A Citizen’s Blog territory here, but I’ll try my best. What are the top NL VORPs?

1. Albert Pujols 69.7 1b
2. Miguel Cabrera 65.9 3b
3. Carlos Beltran 64.9 CF
4. Ryan Howard 63.8 1b
5. Lance Berkman 55.5 1b

Look at that! What appears at first glance is not always true. Howard isn’t 2nd in VORP, he isn’t even 3rd, he’s 4th. However, what appears here is not always the complete picture either. Howard faces much stiffer competition than Carlos Beltran when being rated against his position. Three 1b are in the top 5 for VORP, so imagine how many other good 1B there are, which weighs down the ‘value’ one can have over another 1b. Compare that to CFs and Beltran is heads and shoulders above anyone else in that position. However, his OPS and counting stats aren’t close to Pujols or Howard.

The one gem that we seem to have found is Miguel Cabrera. Third base is actually only behind 1b and LF overall offensive output this year, and so he his replacement would be better than Beltran’s. He’s definitely turning in his best season in his young career, and should be included in the discussion for MVP. His line is nowhere near as home run happy as Howard’s or Pujols, but what he lacks in dingers he makes up for in doubles (46) and average (336). What has changed for him this season was simply adding some patience to his game, and that has catapulted his OPS over the 1 mark, to 1.002.

So we have three guys we should be talking about here, Howard, Pujols, and Cabrera. And I promised you one more look at another stat, EQA. EQA attempts to show the total offensive value per out, and corrects for league, ballpark, and pitching. It’s complicated, but very useful is taking down the barriers betwee leagues and parks. The average EQA is always .260, so anything higher is better. The top 5 for EQA:

1. Albert Pujols .338
2. Barry Bonds .329
3. Miguel Cabrera .327
4. Ryan Howard .325
5. Lance Berkman .321

So what does this all mean? Barry Bonds would be fighting for another MVP is he were healthy and actually able to play everyday. But he hasn’t been, and he doesn’t play everyday, so he can’t be the MVP. What it means is that it’s simply too close to call. Of course that’s a cop out, but with Pujols having a lead in rate stats, VORP and EQA, but missing 16 games, it makes it tough to pick anyone right now. One thing I know is that it’s a three man race between Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard, and Miguel Cabrera. Their production over the rest of September will determine who wins. It’s a clean slate right now, we’re starting over.

I guess the one thing that may nullify all of the above is that I don’t give out the MVP award, baseball writers do. And they rarely look at OPS, let alone VORP or EQA (check out this appeal for Todd Jones as CY Young, he of the 4.58 ERA in 53 IP) . To many, it’s not about who was actually the best, it’s about ‘who was the best player/leader on the best team’, as though a hitter somehow has this HUGE impact on the rest of their team to the point that their very absence would lose them 30 more games. No one player is THAT valuable, baseball is the epitome of individual efforts adding up to a team total. Thing is, baseball is also very one on one in almost every aspect of the game, and thus it’s much easier to break down and decide who did the best. Somewhere along the way, the MVP became about highlighting a player on a playoff team and not about highlighting the best player. To me, ‘most valuable’ means the player that did the MOST that they could.